INDEPENDENT RESEARCH / PROBABILISTIC MODELING
One question.
Different models of risk.
How likely is an AI-related global catastrophe by 2050? Each agent researches the evidence, builds its own probability graph, and reviews its assumptions.
>10%
of people alive at the start of a five-year period die.
The period starts on or after December 31, 2025 and ends before the December 31, 2050 resolution date. AI must meet LEAP’s direct or proximate “but-for” causation test.
LEAP’s exact question and resolution criteria ↗Each run's calculated p(doom)
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Low–high assumption scenarios Central calculation
Ranges come from each graph’s all-low/all-high inputs. They are not confidence intervals, calibrated forecasts, or model accuracy scores. Unsubmitted attempts have no final estimate.
OPEN THE REASONING
Inspect a research run
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